Excerpt from Daily Kos: “And we’re running a pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-comprehensive immigration reform, and pro-getting our troops home from Iraq (where his son is currently serving). He’s not a Blue Dog in the making, but a honest-to-goodness Democrat running a Democratic campaign in a supposedly hostile district”. (I think this answers why the Blue Dogs are nowhere to be found supporting Brown)

The Daily Joke is basically the Left’s version of the CRA. The difference is that the CRA loves America, the Daily Kos crowd does not. Needless to say, the Daily Kos blog is fully invested in Charlie Brown. The Daily Kos is trying to make noise to attract some of the DCCC’s dwindling resources as Obama is sucking the life out of every other campaign in favor of his own.

Brown claims to be campaigning as a moderate – yet his backers read like a who’s who of the extreme left – Blue America, Daily Kos, Brad Sherman, Barbara Lee and Charlie (taxman) Rangel… I still can not figure out why Blue Dogs like Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa have not come to Brown’s aid. Maybe I can – it is because Charlie Brown is a stone-cold anti-war liberal.

Enter the Daily Joke with a “poll”.

Enter “Monty” the Kool-Aid mascot… only he can truly provide a backdrop for the jaw-dropping words on Daily Joke.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 04:49:34 PM PDT

We’re finding with our first round of House polling that things are generally tough for the challenger party. We’re playing offense in mostly Republican districts, always against better-known and better-funded Republicans. It’s a tripple-whammy. But it’s one we faced and overcame in 2006 as well, in districts all around the country. So all our current House polling serves more as baseline polling as the House campaigns truly gear up. Most of these races will be polled one more time in late October to gauge movement and momentum.

In any case, while most of our first-round House polls have given us reason to be positive, none so far have given us such clearly awesome news as this one:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

McClintock® 41
Brown (D) 46

Wow – if you didn’t take a look at their methodology, you’d be ready to cut your wrists. But wait – there’s more!!!

This is an open seat race, with McClintock a carpet-bagging but well-known conservative figure in California. Democrat Charlie Brown came close to upsetting the corrupt outgoing congressman John Doolittle in 2006, and Republicans pushed him out to improve their chances in the district. But the GOP primary was ugly, and it appears that the district wasn’t just upset at Doolittle’s shenanigans. They truly do appear to want change.

Brown peels away 13 percent of Republicans in this heavily Republican district (PVI R+10.9), which Bush won 61-37 in 2004. He’s also killing with Independents, winning them 49-33. And while the nine percent of undecided Republicans will likely fall in line, the 10 percent of undecided Independents and five percent of undecided Republicans would probably provide the winning margin today.

Winning this district would be a political shocker. Keep this in mind—only five Democrats (out of 236) hold seats more conservative than this one. And we’re running a pro-choice, pro-environment, pro-comprehensive immigration reform, and pro-getting our troops home from Iraq (where his son is currently serving). He’s not a Blue Dog in the making, but a honest-to-goodness Democrat running a Democratic campaign in a supposedly hostile district (McCain beats Obama 51-39 in this poll).

Blogger’s note – that’s a Pro-Amnesty, Anti-Drilling, Pro-Surrender Liberal.

Charlie Brown is not just a Democrat, he’s a better Democrat, and someone we are thrilled to have on our Orange to Blue ActBlue page. We’ve got the lead, Doolittle is on the run. Let’s help Charlie have the resources to close this thing out. Contribute to his campaign today.

Wow – you’d swear that the 4th CD was about ready to have a Group Kool-Aid Slam! Not so fast!!! Take a look at the methods employed by the Daily Kos to get their results:

1) RDD (Random Digit Samples) require interviewers to ask respondents if they are registered to vote. The socially desirable answer is “yes” whether or not they are registered. Also, RDD telephone prefixes do not follow congressional district boundaries. Some voters are excluded from the sampling frame while other voters are incorrectly included.

2) Rather than using patterns of behavior – Kos’ pollsters simply asked the question. Similarly, asking someone if they will vote is subject to the same social desirability. Our superior propensity formula is based upon past voting behavior and other variables found in an enhanced voter file.

3) DTS Voter Participation – Kos used 24% / McC’s team uses 20% based on past elections.Voter turn-out, even in a presidential election, will be higher among Republicans and Democrats than among independents and 3rd party voters.

4) Party Quotas – The California Secretary of State lists the Republican registration advantage in the district at 16 , not the 10 used by the Daily Kos. If the correct quotas are applied (even using Daily Kos results) the vote shares come out to 43.5% Brown and 43.3% McClintock.

5) Senior Citizen Participation – The Daily Kos poll underestimates senior citizen turnout at 19% for 60+ voters. It is not credible to claim that the 18-29 vote percentages will fall 1 point below the 60+ vote in this district. This is important because even the Daily Kos poll has McClintock ahead among senior citizens. (Senior Citizen participation should be about 28%, not 19%)

6) Ballot Designations – The Daily Kos did not use any. McClintock’s team does and has.

Are you understanding what is going on here? Overestimate young voters, DTS voters, underestimate Senior voters, Republican voters and leave ballot designations off the questions and you get the desired result. Oh, and how many respondents live outside the district due to the sample method???

Sorry Charlie! Rigged polls can not change the fact that you are now in the house of pain. You have been drilled, hung in effigy and are being exposed for your real stances on issues.

I’d suggest that it is time for Charlie to man-up and say I am the liberal alternative to McClintock. McClintock knows too much about government and economics – vote for be because I served in Vietnam!

People will forget about the effigy, people will forget about Prop 8 and they will flock to the coven (can’t say church as that would be forcing religious values) of Brown.

Charlie – It’s worth a shot because nothing else has worked…