Sorry Charlie!

SOURCE: Rasmussen Reports – Number of Democrats in US Declines in July

MORE BAD NEWS FOR CHARLIE BROWN

Number of Democrats in US Declines in July

Over the weekend, the Charlie Brown camp learned that John McCain has pulled even with Barack Obama in national polls and that McCain is attracting conservative Democrats. The second round of bad news from Rasmussen Reports involves registration and party identification. People are beginning to defect from the Democrat Party.

In the 4th CD, the Democrats have hemorrhaged 4% registration. This is amazing considering that Arnold bankrupt the California Republican Party getting his bonds passed in 2006.

During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points to 39.2%. That’s the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41% (see history from January 2004 to present).

Link to raw data

While the number of Democrats declined, there was virtually no change in the number of Republicans. In July, 31.6% said they were Republicans, the fourth straight month that number has been between 31.4% and 31.6%.

The Democrats now have a 7.6 percentage point advantage over the Republicans, down from a 9.5 percentage point advantage in June and 10.1 percentage points in May.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002.

Among men, 34% are Democrats, 33% Republican. Forty-four percent (44%) of women are Democrats, and just 30% claim the GOP as their party.

Forty-one percent (41%) of government employees are Democrats while 31% are Republicans. Among entrepreneurs, 36% are Republican, 34% Democrat. Those who work for someone else in the private sector lean Democratic by a 38% to 31% margin.

In January and February, while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were in the early stages of the battle for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the number of Americans who considered themselves to be Democrats surged to record highs.

In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points.
In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November.

These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error for the sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence. Please keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not Likely Voters.

In order for Charlie Brown to win the 4th congressional seat, a lot of things have to go his way. A new opponent, lower than expected party registration numbers, gasoline prices driving more people to re-think offshore drilling and success in Iraq is making life difficult for ol’ Charlie.

Sorry Charlie.