30% of Conservative Democrats Say They’ll Vote for McCain

Two years ago, Democrat Charlie Brown lost to a wounded incumbent Republican in California ’s Fourth Congressional District. Now, making another run for the seat he believes is his to lose, Brown faces tougher competition in Sen. Tom McClintock, the darling of Ronald Reagan conservatives. Brown will not be able to benefit from Republican in-fighting in 2008 like he did in 2006 as well.

The well-known and highly popular McClintock, clearly conservative, has a libertarian streak that is attractive even to some Democrats. Remember the 2003 recall race for Governor? McClintock was the candidate deemed by more than one media outlet as the most qualified to be Governor. The Los Angeles Times said “some Democrats have praised McClintock for having a firm set of convictions that he’s able to present clearly to voters.”

Articulate and steady, McClintock’s appeal across party lines is not the only reason why he will be the next Congressman to represent the sprawling Fourth Congressional District. Voter registration in the district already favors Republicans, and especially a conservative Republican. In short, McClintock is a good conservative candidate in a good conservative district.

If that wasn’t enough evidence to spell trouble for Charlie Brown, the recent Rasmussen Report should be. There are increasing concerns about Democrat nominee Barack Obama’s chances to hang on to conservative Democrats. Clearly, Obama is the most liberal candidate the Democrat Party has fielded in more than three decades. And, he is the candidate who opposed the once well-oiled Clinton machine.

Obama likely will win California although Republicans have their best chance since 1988 to put the state in the GOP column. But not all of California ’s 58 counties will support Obama. Eight of the nine counties of the Fourth CD will be won by McCain, with Sacramento a toss-up and that’s the dilemma for Charlie Brown. Unlike Democrat candidates running in the neighboring congressional districts of the 3rd and the 11th, Charlie Brown is not just swimming against the tide, but against very strong GOP presidential undercurrents.

The recent Rasmussen Report on Obama details the trouble ahead for Charlie Brown:

Thirty percent (30 percent) of conservative Democrats say they’re voting for John McCain. Data from Rasmussen Reports also shows McCain picking up support from 19 percent of White Democrats and 15 percent of Democrats over the age of 50. These results are from national telephone survey interviews conducted with 14,000 Likely Voters during the two weeks ending July 24. The sample includes 5,074 Democratic voters. (Rasmussen uses robo-calls)

The data shows that 43 percent of Democrats consider themselves politically liberal, 37percent say they’re moderate, and 18 percent are conservative.

Forty-one percent (41 percent) of conservative Democrats have a favorable opinion of John McCain. Sixty-seven percent (67 percent) say the same about Obama.

Among liberal Democrats, just 23 percent have a positive opinion about McCain, but 90 percent give Obama favorable reviews.

Obama is supported by 78 percent of Democrats overall, a figure that includes 62 percent of conservative Democrats. He leads 84 percent to 13 percent among Democrats under 30. But, among those over 65, Obama earns just 74 percent of the vote while McCain is preferred by 16 percent of Democratic senior citizens. It is interesting to note that just 2 percent of Democrats under 30 hold back from selecting either Obama or McCain. That number grows to 9 percent among Democrats over 65.

This means that despite the certain coronation of Barak Obama, Charlie Brown is in trouble. Charlie Brown can’t run the same campaign this time around, and he is already trying to hide his liberal philosophy (see also his energy ‘plan’). In the end, Charlie Brown will go home defeated, a victim of his own party’s liberalism.

Sorry Charlie! These are national numbers, and they are going to be way worse here in the 4th CD.