Charlie Brown has 90% name ID and will have money to campaign. 90% name ID is a huge hurdle for a challenger to overcome.

Brown will do what Egland is doing which is to front his military service to attempt to hide his record. (Egland has none, Brown’s is one of a liberal) He has nothing else to run on other than the tired “Doolittle is Corrupt” garbage and his service.

Also notice how he is trying to saddle up to the Charter School issue and some other stuff to curry favor.

Meantime, we are wasting our time fighting with each other and missing the real message of this poll Tom Hudson wrote about.

Can Gaines at 20-25% name ID raise the money to take down Brown? The voters don’t know Brown is a card-carrying ACLU and Code Pink Member. The voters don’t know that Brown was one of the 200 at the hung effigy. Our candidate has to tell voters about that, or else he loses. That was a clear message from that poll.

Doolittle has a completely new staff – (Hinkle had been working on that appointment Arnold gave him for quite a while according to what he told me btw.) This is a good thing as it shows connection.

Doolittle’s campaign is fully engaged unlike the last cycle where it almost started too late.

Doolittle has been in the district.

Doolittle has Ron Rogers, one of the best campaign managers out there.

In 2006, Arnold was our standard-bearer and we had abysmal turnout. With the spectre of Hillary Clinton, Republicans will be voting en-masse and Doolittle’s almost 100% name ID is not necessarily the bad thing those on this blog with agendas think it is.

Most of the bleed-off that people proudly threw in my face when they were showing me results in Placer County from 2006 occurred in the Sun City areas where Brown campaigned hard on the corruption message.

Problem for Brown, the message is the same, but the investigation is not new anymore. It will be 4 years old by the time Brown starts to try to get votes off of it.

Can Ted Gaines heal the rift he created with a very public and messy declaration of an exploratory committee? Despite the anger of the small cadre of Egland supporters demonstrated on this blog and in my personal e-mail box… the majority of the animus out there is directed at Ted. Fortunately less than 1/4 of the voters know Ted than know Doolittle.

I think Ted can heal the animus, but that ball is in his court. How he declares he is running for re-election to the assembly and reaches out to the base will be interesting to watch. On the issues, his 95% CRA scorecard puts an exclamation point on his Conservative credentials. (hat tip to Ted)

No one out there not named Rico Oller or John Doolittle has ever raised close to the $1.5 Million it will take to properly educate voters that Charlie Brown is a Nancy Pelosi liberal.

Brown is a formidable opponent, all of you who have written on this blog have admitted that and used it as the basis of your Doolittle can’t win arguments. With Egland at 4%, Holmes at 16% and Gaines at 20-25% name ID, it would take any of them a bank vault to get their name ID up.

In all of this banter about Doolittle’s prospects of winning, the only issues that ever come up are Earmarks. That is the only issue to get to Doolittle’s right on… he is Pro-Life, Pro 2nd Ammendment, Pro-Family and the left hates him for it. Compared to the Guns / Abortion / Gays triumverate, the Earmarks issue doesn’t resonate. Angry tirades about Charlie Rangel’s library pale in comparison to someone who stood with a soldier hung in effigy.

Jeff Flint has written for months that Doolittle can’t win. This poll shows that Egland will need $3 Million to bridge the name ID gap and to educate voters about Brown… Holmes is basically Brown-lite and Gaines will need to raise more money for this race than in his entire past political career.

I wrote it before and I will write it again, with $2.5 Million I could get someone thrown in Jail. $2.5 Million is a ton of money in a congressional race and that is what Brown will have. Thinking that a couple hundred thousand dollars and hiding behind the “R” on the ballot will get you there makes no sense at all… this may be a Republican district, but voters don’t know any of Brown’s opponents not named Doolittle!That’s elementary electioneering…

My thesis is this, the only person who can win is one who can raise $1.5 Million… Doolittle is the only one out there that ever has. Rico is not running against Doolittle, neither is Mc Clintock. I floated an idea of Doug Ose in a past comment due to the fact that he could self-fund.

The bottom line is that if Doolittle does not get indicted, which he won’t… (bets anyone?) He is our man and our best hope… end of story. No amount of anonymous comments or angry Egland supporters will change that.

P.S. Did anyone notice that the media railing against John Doolittle subsided almost on cue with when the results of this poll were first leaked to the AP? That should tell you what the insiders think about its’ results – the weak-kneed GOP leadership stopped beating the retirement drum.